“The disinflationary process has started”
-Jerome Powell
Key Points
- EFFR + 0.25%
- New Target Range 4.5-4.75%
- Starting to see inflation coming down, but still far from the 2% over time
- Ongoing Plans
- EFFR -> 5.1% by EOY 2023
- anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time
- Rachel Segal Washington Post -> Does the positive economic data changes your view on the unemployment rates going up
Ongoing Plans
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Longer run | |
| Federal funds rate | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| PCE inflation | 5.6 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Unemployment rate | 3.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4 |
Federal Reserve Mandate
- Price Stability
- Maximum Employment
